Ore. Dems have their supermajority. Now what?

By Ryan Kost, Associated Press Writer
Thursday, November 06, 2008 | No comments posted.

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PORTLAND — The strong push Democrats made throughout Oregon Tuesday left a considerable mark on the House. It cleared away at least three Republican incumbents while giving Democrats an additional six seats — maybe more.

It’s exactly what the Democrats had hoped for: A supermajority that would allow them to pass tax and fee increases without Republican consent.

But now that they have their 37-member majority, what happens next?

Democratic majority leader Dave Hunt said the legislature will tackle a number of issues that have only been made more immediate by an ailing economy. Among those top issues are a transportation plan, health care reform and expanding access to education. Gov. Ted Kulongoski’s recently announced climate change package will likely find an easy path through the legislature.

The expectations, Hunt said, are high.

“I have no problem with that,” he said. “I think that’s a good thing.”

However, the difficult economic times that make many of those top issues so timely will also greatly affect the budget with which legislators have to work. That’s one of the reasons, Hunt said, this “session is going to be particularly challenging.”

Republicans warn the bold policy positions the Democrats have promised their constituents will likely go hand in hand with tax and fee increases. They’ll be able to voice their discontent, of course, but they’ll have few, if any, avenues to stop such increases.

“We can certainly vote “no,” and we can be very vocal about those things, but if the current numbers based on the election hold up, they can use a supermajority and pass issues without us,” said House Minority Leader Bruce Hanna, R-Roseburg.

But Gary Conkling, a Salem lobbyist and political analyst, wonders whether the fear of major tax increases is overblown, not only because the economy would make them deeply unpopular but also because of the way in which the Democrats new majority was created.

Though a strong surge in Democratic registration helped them march into traditionally conservative districts, the seats taken by Democrats are still fundamentally moderate.

That means, if those new legislators are looking to keep their seats, they’ll trend more moderate. For that reason, Conkling doesn’t necessarily believe the increased majority means an automatic tax hike.

“Given the moderate portion of the House Democratic caucus, I don’t think it means runaway tax votes,” he said. “I do think the Democratic majority will say this is a good time to look at health care issues, work force issues, climate change. I think in policy issues you’ll see more forceful policy.”

Hanna hopes that’s the case. “I would hope a conservative tone could come from those districts,” he said. “I would love to see fiscally conservative policy stand a chance.”

For his part, Hunt said the new additions would likely bring a new flavor to the Democratic party.

“Our caucus is definitely going to benefit from having the perspective of all of theses suburban and rural members,” he said. But even with such geographic and ideological diversity, Hunt expects the caucus will still be able to move as a whole.

“The good news is that we’ve got a team that is very focused and energized.”
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